Η πρόσφατη αναβάθμιση της ελληνικής οικονομίας από τη Standard & Poor's ήρθε ως επιστέγασμα μιας πολύ επώδυνης και μακρόχρονης δημοσιονομικής προσαρμογής που ξεκίνησε το 2010 και ολοκληρώθηκε ουσιαστικά με την αποπληρωμή των δανείων του ΔΝΤ στις αρχές του 2022 και το Μεσοπρόθεσμο 2023-2026 που κλειδώνει την επάνοδο στα πρωτογενή πλεονάσματα μετά το έκτακτο διάλειμμα της πανδημίας.
Οι διεθνείς οικονομικοί παράγοντες παρατηρούν με προσοχή αλλά και με έκπληξη την πλήρη μεταστροφή της Ελλάδας από μια πλήρως χρεοκοπημένη χώρα το 2010, σε μια δημοσιονομικά πειθαρχημένη και συνεπή χώρα που αξίζει μια θέση στην κατηγορία της επενδυτικής βαθμίδας παρά το πολύ μεγάλο δημόσιο χρέος, το 80% όμως του οποίου βρίσκεται στα κρατικά χαρτοφυλάκια της Ευρωζώνης.
Αυτό σημαίνει ότι γίναμε κιόλας μια εύρωστη οικονομία; Όχι βέβαια. Έχουμε πολύ δρόμο ακόμη. Ξεφύγαμε όμως μετά βαΐων και κλάδων από την κατηγορία του κράτους-παρία που ζητιάνευε για δανεικά στη Μόσχα, το Πεκίνο και τα υπόγεια του Νταβός και πλέον μπορούμε να δανειζόμαστε φθηνότερα από την Ιταλία και μόλις 1,4% ακριβότερα από τη Γερμανία.
Η Wall Street Journal δημοσιεύει σήμερα ένα διθυραμβικό editorial για αυτή τη μεταστροφή της Ελλάδας από "basket case" σε "model fiscal citizen with free-market reforms".
Greece’s great economic comeback
Europe’s former basket case is becoming a model fiscal citizen with free-market reforms.
The Wall Street Journal, by The Editorial Board, 23/10/2023 22:32 GMT
Talk about an economic comeback story. Less than a decade ago, Greece looked like it might never recover from its economic and political traumas. On Friday it won back an investment-grade credit rating from Standard & Poor’s.
The upgrade on Greek debt achieves a goal set by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, although it also sells short the scale of the transformation Mr. Mitsotakis has brought about in Athens. S&P Global cited “significant budgetary consolidation” and the summer’s electoral “mandate for policy continuity” to explain its decision—which, as so often with credit ratings, arrives behind the curve and for the wrong reasons.
Athens needed to get spending under control after the fiscal excesses of the early 2000s culminated in a debt crisis starting in 2009. But if a balanced budget were all the country required to be deemed investable, a credit upgrade would have happened by now. Greece agreed to three separate bailouts from its European peers between 2010 and 2015, all of which included punishing fiscal conditions.
Those conditions were never met because neither the bailout deals nor Greek politicians implemented a growth agenda. Voters grew exasperated with the first two bailouts-to-nowhere and in 2015 swung to the far left, electing Alexis Tsipras of the Syriza Party as Prime Minister.
Mr. Tsipras nearly blew up the eurozone, refusing to honor bailout conditions and going so far as to stage a botched referendum on euro membership before stepping back from the brink. Then he signed a bailout deal with its own fiscal strictures.
Mr. Mitsotakis’s innovation, since ousting Mr. Tsipras and bringing the center-right New Democracy party back to power in 2019, has been to focus on economic growth. He cut the corporate tax rate to 22% from 29%, has worked to rationalize government operations, and now is pushing ahead with privatizations.
The renewed optimism explains why the economy is expected to grow this year by about 2.5%, S&P expects government debt will fall to 146% of GDP from 189% in 2020, and investment is pouring in. All of this happened despite the pandemic, a migration crisis and several natural disasters. It also explains why Mr. Mitsotakis won re-election handily this summer.
Challenges remain for an economy that still is too dependent on a handful of industries such as tourism, and important regulatory reforms are needed to increase dynamism. But Mr. Mitsotakis has figured out that an economic growth agenda is the essential ingredient for building support for those reforms—and for balancing the books. That’s a lesson the rest of Europe—and America—could learn from the Continent’s former problem child.
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